1、原文Changing Channels In The Automotive Industry: The Future of Automotive Marketing and DistributionWho will be the winners and losers in the revolution that is radically reshaping the marketing, distribution and selling of automobiles? Will the vehicle manufacturers and their franchised-dealer netwo
2、rks be able to overcome years of inertia and complacency to pioneer and execute new concepts that will strengthen and extend the value of their brands? Or will nimbler, more imaginative retailers or software companies get there first? The transformation of the business of selling cars and trucks is
3、happening before our eyes at an incredible pace - promising to change forever an industry that has long been noted for its high costs, poor service and extremely unpleasant selling process. Auto manufacturers have competed fiercely among themselves to drive out cost and meet consumer needs for cheap
4、er and better cars and trucks. Now the survivors face new threats from outside the industry that might thwart their renewed interest in building strong, lasting relationships with their customers. Entrepreneurs have dissected the cost-value equation and come up with new retail concepts. Their storie
5、s have been persuasive enough to attract hundreds of millions of dollars in public equity investment and persuade dozens of fiercely independent car dealers to sell out. Internet technology has lowered entry barriers for other entrepreneurs with new ideas about helping customers find, evaluate and b
6、uy new vehicles. These patterns are consistent with revolutions in other consumer durables markets that effectively transferred market power from manufacturers to retailers. Consumers are the only clear winners in this battle. While we are not sure which vehicle manufacturers will survive, we are co
7、nfident that winning will require a better understanding of the life-cycle value equations of both cars and buyers, and the development of innovative strategies to capture that value. FORCES OF CHANGE From the days of Henry Fords production line, the automobile industry has been based on a supply-pu
8、sh philosophy - a strong bias toward filling the factories to cover high fixed costs. Dealer networks were created as logical extensions of the supply-push model. The networks were designed to hold inventory, leverage private capital (without threatening the manufacturers control) and service and su
9、pport what was then a less reliable and more maintenance-intensive product. Those networks generally were built around entrepreneurs focused on a defined geographic area, selling one or at most two brands. Despite its longevity, the traditional dealer channel leaves many people unhappy. High custome
10、r acquisition costs motivate dealers to convert store traffic to sales using aggressive tactics that extract differential margins based on customers willingness to pay. Frequent well-publicized rebates have taught buyers to mistrust sticker prices and negotiate from cost up, rather than sticker down
11、. As a result, dealers often find themselves competing not against another brand, but against a same-make dealer across town. This acute competition has almost bid away dealer profit on the sale of new passenger cars in the United States (with some profits still available on sales of trucks, sport u
12、tility vehicles and luxury cars). Shrinking dealer margins do not translate into happy customers: Most customers (approximately four out of five) dislike the purchase process, and many still come away feeling cheated and mistreated. This strong antipathy is largely responsible for the rapid growth o
13、f Internet-based services that offer alternative means of gathering information on cars, soliciting price quotes and, in some cases, conducting transactions. SURFING THE NET FOR PROFITS Obviously the Internet is a major enabler of change in auto distribution. Many of the most important auto industry
14、 innovators today are developing Web-based services, leading some to predict that the most important automotive company of the next century will be a software-based company. Republic Industries, for instance, expects sales to reach $1 billion on the World Wide Web by the year 2000. Estimates vary, b
15、ut some studies have shown that with some cars, as many as 40 percent of customers gather information from the Internet. A smaller but growing percentage of customers demonstrate what is called shopping behavior, or soliciting price quotations and availability information prior to the actual purchas
16、e. The dramatic growth and power of Internet technology have greatly reduced the cost of obtaining information on features, price and availability. Consequently, customers are better equipped to extract what they want from dealerships. One of the pioneers of Internet marketing, A Inc., is working to
17、 speed response time from its participating dealers because it has learned that a staggeringly high proportion of its customers - 64 percent - buy within 24 hours of using its service to get price and availability quotes. The Internet offers new and better ways to perform many sales and marketing fu
18、nctions and makes it possible for manufacturers to have more and richer two-way communications directly with consumers. It has also provided, for the rest time, the capability for channel marketing on a national or even international scale, attacking further the value of the traditional, geographica
19、lly depend channel. DEALERS STILL PART OF EQUATION No one is suggesting, though, that auto dealers will disappear. Ironically, changes in cars and trucks themselves are making dealers more important. Consumers have more choices of brands and models than ever before. Improved durability and reliabili
20、ty and faster design cycles have narrowed the differences among competing products in the same category. Brand loyalty increasingly derives not from the product itself but from the total purchase and ownership experience. Numerous studies show that customer satisfaction has become a much more critic
21、al competitive differentiator and a greater influence on repurchase loyalty than the car itself. And it is the dealer that controls these levers today. (See Exhibit II.) This explains the intense efforts many vehicle manufacturers have made to set standards for, measure and even base some dealer com
22、pensation on customer satisfaction scores. As a result of the high-cost, low-satisfaction proposition provided by the traditional dealer channel in general, many players have recently moved to capitalize on opportunities afforded by improving the channel-value equation. Entrepreneurs with access to
23、public capital have strategic designs to modernize auto distribution. Six dealer groups in the United States went public in 1996-7. Collectively they soared past the $4 billion mark in revenue in 1997, up by more than 30 percent from 1996, with most of the growth coming from additional acquisitions
24、of existing dealers. The most prominent new automotive industry entrepreneur in the United States is H. Wayne Huizenga, chairman of Republic Industries. Mr. Huizenga has a proven track record as an innovator who has revolutionized the waste disposal and video rental industries. Republic owns the nat
25、ions largest group of franchised automotive dealerships, operates the AutoNation USA used-vehicle megastore chain and owns and operates several car rental businesses. Republic is currently on an extraordinary acquisition campaign for new-car business dealerships. Even though Republic has almost sing
26、le-handedly doubled the market price for dealerships, it does not appear to be slowing down. Nonetheless, manufacturers seem to be following, not leading, the revolution. Many are still being pushed or kicked along the path of change. There are real questions whether their late - and in some cases h
27、alf-hearted - responses will be enough to protect the traditional position of the vehicle manufacturer as the caller of shots in the auto industry. VISION FOR THE FUTURE Now that we see serious cracks in the walls protecting the traditional automotive distribution model, what will the future bring?
28、Both the underlying drivers of change in automotive retailing and the trends already under way help answer that question. In addition, it is helpful to compare the automobile industry with other industries that have experienced distribution-channel evolution and look at the lessons they learned. Mos
29、tconsumer-durable industries have undergone substantial distribution-channel evolution resulting from changes in economics, regulations or technologies. Each one has unique circumstances, but we can see three relatively common, distinct stages in these channel restructurings: Stage One: This is mark
30、ed by major improvements in value delivered, mostly reductions in cost. Usually the cost reductions stem from consolidation and rationalization in the channel as better concepts or bigger players drive out marginal or small players. The bigger players use their cost advantage to reduce prices and of
31、ten to improve service, variety and convenience. Stage Two: Here channel evolution is focused on meeting the needs of specific customer segments. Channel functions are unbundled and restructured into more efficient or more appealing formats for defined groups of customers. Customer value is further
32、enhanced through lower prices, better service or greater variety. Stage Three: This brings dramatic new paradigms not just for distribution but for the entire value chain. Full-service leasing (power by the hour) in the heavy-duty-truck market is an example of this type of game-changing concept. We
33、anticipate five major changes in future automobile distribution patterns and practices: FORMING A STRATEGIC RESPONSE Given this view of the future, what should a manufacturer or major channel player do? Appropriate responses are to some extent situation-dependent, of course, but we believe the three
34、 stages of channel evolution observed in other industries provide valuable insight into what is and will be required to prevail in the automotive industry. Accordingly, we recommend the following strategic responses consistent with the three stages of channel evolution and the future automotive dist
35、ribution vision described above: Aggressively and systematically pursue functional improvement beyond the factory gate. The most prominent opportunity is cost. Develop a vision of a desired end-game distribution channel strategy and begin making progress toward that vision, taking care to achieve co
36、nsistency between the long-term vision and short-term functional improvement agendas. Build the means to create and capture much more of the downstream value associated with the automobile - and, in so doing, strive to innovate game-changing approaches to the business. FUNCTIONAL IMPROVEMENTS In the
37、 conventional dealer networks, tremendous improvement opportunities exist along two basic functional paths: reducing costs and raising customer satisfaction. Most manufacturers and many large channel players are jumping at these opportunities, given their magnitude. However, these players tend to se
38、lect a limited number of programs, and they typically concentrate on single functional improvements independently or on a single functional path. A better approach is to address systematically the whole realm of possibilities with an integrated view of benefits within and across specific functions.
39、This is not easy. Even programs with moderate scope and ambition typically require reforming entrenched business philosophies; coordinating several organizational groups with disparate incentives; managing complex and imposing legalities, and facing up to dealers resistant to change. But manufacture
40、rs must recognize that new players unencumbered by these constraints are raising the bar and traditional players must reach higher or fall behind. To date, Republic has focused primarily on pursuing the benefits of consolidation typical in the first stage of retail channel evolution. But some of its
41、 actions suggest the potential for truly game-changing retail evolution. When channel players, as opposed to manufacturers, are the winners in retail evolution, most often the one that leads in the first stage is the one that leads in other stages and reaps substantial benefits. Republic could be th
42、e first in the automotive industry to create an independent retail brand that actually owns the customer.译文：汽车行业渠道的转变：未来的汽车销售和流通谁将成为赢家？谁能彻底重塑销售、分销和销售为一体的汽车?他们的汽车制造商网络能够克服惯性和骄傲自满的先驱和执行新观念，加强和扩大品牌价值的吗?或者，更富于想象力的零售商将nimbler或软件公司先到那儿?变革的商业销售轿车和卡车在我们眼前发生在一个令人难以置信的速度承诺永远改变，长期以来一直使这个行业中付出很高的代价，可怜的服务和令人不快的销
43、售过程。汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争，使自己所需费用和满足消费者又便宜又好汽车和卡车。现在这个幸存者面对新的威胁来自国外的行业，可能会阻止他们的兴趣，以及持久良好的客户关系。企业家们想出了新的零售观念。他们的故事已经有说服力的足够吸引了数亿美元的公共股权投资和说服数十种完全不卖了汽车经销商。互联网技术已经降低了进入壁垒和其它企业家帮助客户寻找新的看法，评估和买新车。这些模式符合其他耐用消费品市场的革命力量，有效转移到零售商从制造商的市场。消费者是唯一没有加入到这次战斗中的成员。虽然我们不能肯定哪个汽车制造商能生存，我们坚信胜利将需要一个更好的理解这个定义值方程的汽车和买家，开发创新的策略。改变的力
44、量亨利福特生产线的发展是基于“supply-push”的理念强烈倾向“填工厂”涵盖高的固定成本。经销商网络的逻辑延伸，创建了“supply-push”模式。这个网络是用来持有存货，利用私人资本(不威胁到制造商控制)、服务和支持的内容是一个更可靠、更适合大众的产品。这些网络一般都是围绕企业家集中在一个定义地域，卖一或两名品牌。尽管它的寿命很短，传统的经销商渠道使很多人不快乐。获取客户的成本很高，激励经销商储存流量转换使用咄咄逼人的销售策略，基于微分边缘提取顾客愿意支付。频繁的构架回扣所教导的买家，不信任贴纸价格和谈判，而不是从成本的贴纸。因此，经销商经常发现他们的竞争对手不反对另一个品牌，但是对
45、一个经销商采取敌对的态度。这种激烈的竞争几乎已经使投标商获利，并出售新轿车。继续发售有意购买者请在销售的卡车、运动型多用途车和豪华车。萎缩的经销商利润不转化为快乐的顾客：大多数顾客(大约五分之四的)不喜欢购买过程中，许多人还是离开感觉到欺骗和虐待。这种强烈的反感主要是为快速增长的互联网服务所提供可供选择的方式收集资料，对汽车，报价及价格，在某些情况下，进行交易。在网上冲浪的利润因特网在汽车分销中是一个主要的明显变化的角色。许多最重要的汽车产业发展网络服务的创新者的今天，导致了一些人预测，最重要的汽车公司将在下个世纪的软件公司。共和国行业，例如，预期销售额达到10亿美元在万维网上。估计有很多，但
46、一些研究表明一些汽车，多达40%的客户从互联网上收集信息。一个较小，但越来越多的客户展示所谓的购物行为，或招揽价格和可用性信息之前的实际购买。这个引人注目的成长与网路科技的力量已经大大降低了成本获取信息的特点，在价格和可用性。因此，客户更好地提取他们想要的东西从经销商。一个先锋的网络营销，A有限公司是致力于速度响应时间从它的参与，因为它已经得知，经销商有惊人比例过高，它的64%客户买的24小时内使用它的服务得到的价格和可用性。互联网提供了新的和更好的方法来进行销售和营销功能，使得制造商已经越来越富裕的双向通信与客户直接。它也提供了，剩下的时间，对渠道销售全国乃至国际规模，攻击进一步的价值取决于
47、传统，地理频道。经销商还是部分的方程尽管没有人说，但汽车经销商终会消失。具有讽刺意味的是，改变自己的轿车和卡车正在经销商更为重要。消费者有了更多的选择的品牌和型号比以往任何时候都多。改进的耐久性与可靠性和更快的设计周期已经缩小了与之竞争的产品差异在一样的范畴。品牌忠诚度跟不上产品的日益来源本身，而是来自总采购和所有权的经验。无数的研究表明，顾客满意已经成为一个更重大的竞争和更大的影响大于汽车本身回购忠诚。和它的经销商，控制这些杠杆。(看展览II。)这就解释了许多汽车制造商的巨大努力使设定标准、计量、甚至基地有些经销商补偿对顾客满意的成绩。作为一个结果，low-satisfaction命题的成本
48、提供传统的经销商渠道总的来说，很多消费者已经开始利用机会提供完善channel-value方程。企业家与使用公共资金有策略性的设计来满足汽车分销。经销商群体在美国上市的1996-7。他们过去了40亿美元猛增，在1997年的收入，增加了超过30%，从1996年，大部分的增长来自另外收购现有经销商。虽然如此，制造商似乎是跟着，不是领导，革命。许多仍然被推或踢沿着小路上的改变。真正的问题是他们是否有晚在某些情况下，反应将足够三心二意保护传统的汽车制造商位置的来电者的汽车工业。展望未来现在我们看到墙上的裂缝中严重的传统汽车分布模型的保护，将来会带来什么?潜在的司机都在汽车零售及变化趋势已帮助回答这个问
49、题。此外，它是有用的比较与其他行业的汽车行业经验，有流通渠道的演化，有他们学到的教训。大多数消费者产业经历了实质性的流通渠道演化经济学中产生变化，法规和技术。每个人心里都有独特的环境，但我们可以看到三个较为常见，阶段，这些频道的重组。第一阶段：这是由价值有重大改进，大多减少成本。通常的成本大大降低，源自于巩固和合理化的频道概念或更大更好的球员赶出边际”或“小”的球员。更大的玩家使用他们的成本优势，以减少价格和经常来提高服务、多样性和便利。第二阶段：这里是集中在进化渠道的特定客户细分市场。通道功能和重组成更有效率绑定或更有吸引力的格式定义组的客户。通过顾客价值进一步提高价格降低，更好的服务和更大的变化。第三阶段：这带来戏剧性的新范式，不只是为了分布，但对于整个价值链。全方位的租赁(“权力”)按小时的重卡市场是一个例子，这种类型的“改
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