电力公司财务预测与估值模型 Power Company Model (1).xls

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1、诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司财财务务预预测测与与估估值值模模型型Financial Projection and Valuation ModelPower Company模模型型说说明明 Notes颜颜色色区区分分 Colors会计年度末 Fiscal year end12月31日 Dec 3111.4=货币 Currency人民币 RMB11.4=数量单位 Unit百万 Million分析员 Analyst11.4=电话 Telephone number=最后修改日期 Last modified第 1 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训输入数字假设，可以变动 Assumption,can be c

2、hanged历史或给定数字，不能变动Historical or given number,can not be changed公式，不能变动 Formula,can not be changed模型的批注 Comment电电力力公公司司财财务务预预测测与与估估值值模模型型Financial Projection and Valuation ModelPower Company颜颜色色区区分分 Colors第 2 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company目目录录 Contents工作表名称工作表标签Sheet nameSheet label1财务预测 Financ

3、ial forecast收入预测表Revenues固定资产表PP&E融资计划表Financing中间计算表Cals利润表IS资产负债表BS现金流量表CFS比率表Ratios2估值模型 Valuation model折现现金流模型DCF可比公司法Comps第 3 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company收收入入预预测测表表 Revenues预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E

4、2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions三峡总投产机组数（台）Three Gorges generating units(units)21.026.026.026.026.026.026.026.026.026.026.026.0三峡单机组装机容量（百万千瓦）Installed capacity per generating unit of Three Gorges(GW)0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7三峡机组年发电小时数（小时）Annual utilization hours of Three Gorges generators(hours)

5、4,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.8三峡机组上网率 Three Gorges generators on-grid electricity as%of electricity produced100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%三峡机组平均上网电价（不含税，元/度）Average on-grid price of electricity generated by Three Gorges generators

6、(VAT excl.,yuan/kwh)0.260.260.270.270.280.280.290.290.300.31新收购三峡机组数（台）Number of Three Gorges generators newly purchased by the Power Company(units)18.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0葛洲坝机组总装机容量（百万千瓦）Installed capacity of Gezhouba generators(GW)2.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.7葛洲坝机组年发电小时数（小时）Annual ut

7、ilization hours of Gezhouba generators(hours)5,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.75,782.7葛洲坝平均上网率 Gezhouba generators on-grid electricity as%of electricity produced100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%葛洲坝机组平均上网电价（不含税，元/度）Average on-grid price of elect

8、ricity generated by Gezhouba generators(VAT excl.,yuan/kwh)0.180.180.180.190.190.200.200.200.210.21三三峡峡机机组组电电费费收收入入 Revenue from Three Gorges generators三峡总投产机组数（台）Three Gorges generating units(units)21.026.0三峡单机组装机容量（百万千瓦）Installed capacity per generating unit of Three Gorges(GW)总装机容量（百万千瓦）Total ins

9、talled capacity(GW)18.2年发电小时数（小时）Annual utilization hours(hours)发电量（百万度）Electricity produced(GWH)61,603.080,812.0上网率 On-grid electricity as%of electricity produced上网电量（百万度）On-grid electricity(GWH)平均上网电价（不含税，元/度）Average on-grid price(VAT excl.,yuan/kwh)电费收入 Total revenue from Three Gorges generators已

10、收购机组数（台）Number of Three Gorges generators purchased by the Power Company(units)8.08.0分电比例 Electricity attributable to the Power Company as%of total electricity produced电电力力公公司司电电费费收收入入 Revenue attributable to the Power Company三峡总公司电费收入 Revenue attributable to the Three Gorges Corporation6,219.87,069

11、.811,656.1葛葛洲洲坝坝机机组组电电费费收收入入 Revenue from Gezhouba generators总装机容量（百万千瓦）Total installed capacity(GW)2.72.7年发电小时数（小时）Annual utilization hours(hours)发电量（百万度）Electricity produced(GWH)15,464.017,048.0平均上网率 On-grid electricity as%of electricity produced上网电量（百万度）On-grid electricity(GWH)平均上网电价（不含税，元/度）Aver

12、age on-grid price(VAT excl.,yuan/kwh)电电费费收收入入 Revenue from Gezhouba generators主主营营业业务务收收入入 Main business revenueABCDEFGHIJKLMNO12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243第 4 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company固固定定资资产产表表 Property,Plant and Equipment预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特

13、殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions固定资产购建收购三峡机组 Purchase of fixed assets-purchase of Three Gorges generators107,500.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0固定资产购建维护性支出/上一年固定资产净值 Purchase of fixed assets-repairment cost a

14、s%of beginning fixed assets0.4%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.9%1.0%已存固定资产折旧 Depreciation of fixed assets purchased before 20091,900.01,820.01,740.01,660.01,580.01,500.01,420.01,340.01,260.01,180.0固固定定资资产产购购建建 Purchase of fixed assets固定资产购建收购三峡机组 Purchase of fixed assets-purchase of Three Gorges gene

15、rators固定资产购建维护性支出 Purchase of fixed assets-repairment cost固固定定资资产产购购建建 Purchase of fixed assets折折旧旧 Depreciation折旧年限（年）Useful year25.0折旧年份 Year of depreciation2009201020112012201320142015201620172018残值率 Residual value rate0.0%折旧率 Depreciation rate购建年份 Year of purchase固定资产购建 Purchase of fixed assets2

16、0090.0201020112012201320142015201620172018新增固定资产折旧 Depreciation of fixed assets purchased since 2009已存固定资产折旧 Depreciation of fixed assets purchased before 2009折折旧旧 Total depreciation固固定定资资产产净净值值 Fixed assets,net期初值 Beginning balance固定资产购建 Purchase of fixed assets折旧 Depreciation期末值 Ending balance40,5

17、02.1ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839第 5 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company融融资资计计划划表表 Financing预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions短期借款发行（偿

18、还）Issuance(repayment)in short-term loan2,287.3(2,463.0)17,500.0(17,500.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0循环贷款及短期借款利率 Interest rate of short-term loan and financing gap5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%长期借款发行（偿还）Issuance(repayment)in long-term loan(1,700.0)0.041,000.010,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0长期借

19、款利率 Interest rate of long-term loan5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%应付债券发行（减少）Issuance(repayment)in bonds payable3,950.65.120,000.0(3,000.0)(2,000.0)0.00.00.00.0(3,000.0)(3,955.7)0.0应付债券利率 Interest rate of bonds payable4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%货币资金利率 Deposit interest rate1.2%1.

20、2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%新股发行数量（百万股）Number of shares newly issued(million)0.00.01,551.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0新股发行价格（元）Share issue price(yuan per share)12.890.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00债债务务融融资资 Debt financing融资缺口 Financing gap0.0循环贷款利率 Interest rate of financing gap循环贷款利息费用 Inte

21、rest expense of financing gap短期借款 Short-term loan5,590.8短期借款利率 Interest rate of short-term loan短期借款利息费用 Interest expense of short-term loan长期借款 Long-term loan6,800.0长期借款利率 Interest rate of long-term loan长期借款利息费用 Interest expense of long-term loan应付债券 Bonds payable3,955.7应付债券利率 Interest rate of bonds

22、 payable应付债券利息费用 Interest expense of bonds payable债债务务合合计计 Total debt16,346.5利利息息费费用用合合计计 Total interest expenses货币资金 Cash2,470.5货币资金利率 Deposit interest rate货币资金利息收入 Interest income of cash财财务务费费用用 Financial expenses股股权权融融资资 Equity financing新股发行数量（百万股）Number of shares newly issued(million)已发行普通股数（百万

23、股）Common shares outstanding(million)9,412.19,412.1新股发行价格（元）Share issue price(yuan per share)股本及资本公积合计 Paid-in capital and capital reserves27,351.6重重要要指指标标 Important ratios债务/总资本 Debt/invested capital33.0%31.3%30.3%资产负债率 Total liabilities/total assets39.3%35.9%34.9%每股盈利（元/股）Earnings per share(yuan pe

24、r share)0.380.570.42ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253第 6 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company中中间间计计算算表表 Calculations预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2

25、015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions无形资产购建 Purchase of intangible assets4.69.212.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.0红利/上年净利润 Dividends as%of previous years net income52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%52.0%应收款项/（营业收入+三峡总公司电费收入）Accounts receivable as%of the total of operating revenues

26、and revenue attributable to the Three Gorges Corporation8.6%11.6%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.3%其他流动资产/营业收入 Other current assets as%of operating revenues2.8%2.1%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%应付款项/三峡总公司电费收入 Accounts payable as%of revenue attributable to the Three

27、 Gorges Corporation9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%应交税费/当期所得税 Taxes payable as%of current income tax49.9%40.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%55.4%其他应付款/营业成本 Other accounts payable as%of operating costs52.3%67.2%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%75.3%无无形

28、形资资产产净净值值 Intangible assets,net期初值 Beginning balance无形资产购建 Purchase of intangible assets摊销 Amortization期末值 Ending balance22.5留留存存收收益益 Retained earnings期初值 Beginning balance净利润 Net income红利 Dividends期末值 Ending balance10,215.5经经营营性性营营运运资资金金 OWC(Operating working capital)应收款项 Accounts receivable其他流动资产

29、Other current assets应付款项 Accounts payable应交税费 Taxes payable其他应付款 Other accounts payable经经营营性性营营运运资资金金 OWC(Operating working capital)ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435第 7 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company利利润润表表 Income Statement预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB mi

30、llions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions其他业务收入/三峡总公司电费收入 Other business revenue as%of revenue attributable to the Three Gorges Corporation2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%补贴收入/主营业务收入 Subsidy income as%of main busin

31、ess revenue9.0%8.7%8.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%主营业务成本/主营业务收入 Main business cost as%of main business revenue9.5%8.3%14.5%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%其他业务成本/其他业务收入 Other business cost as%of other business revenue80.1%129.1%107.5%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0

32、%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%营业税金及附加/主营业务收入 Business tax and surcharges as%of main business revenue1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%销售费用 Sales expenses1.62.21.42.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0管理费用增长率 Administrative expenses growth rate19.7%2.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%摊销

33、Amortization4.112.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.012.0资产减值损失 Impairment loss(1.4)0.40.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0公允价值变动收益 Gains(losses)from changes in fair value of financial assets(11.7)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0投资收益 Investment income870.02,094.8439.2635.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.

34、00.00.0营业外净收入 Net non-operating income11.6(17.8)(15.3)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0所得税率 Income tax rate32.8%29.2%24.2%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%收收入入 Revenues主营业务收入 Main business revenue6,917.88,577.58,563.1其他业务收入 Other business revenue131.3157.9244.0补贴收入 Subsidy income619.87

35、42.2725.4营营业业收收入入 Operating revenues7,669.09,477.69,532.5主营业务成本 Main business cost659.6709.01,241.3其他业务成本 Other business cost105.2203.9262.3营营业业成成本本 Operating Costs764.8912.81,503.5营业税金及附加 Business tax and surcharges109.2134.0140.6销售费用 Sales expenses1.62.21.4管理费用 Administrative expenses248.6297.7303

36、.6EBITDA(Earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation and amortization)6,544.88,130.97,583.3折旧 Depreciation1,325.41,737.01,907.6摊销 Amortization4.112.012.0EBIT(Earnings before interest and taxes)5,215.26,381.95,663.7财务费用 Financial expenses707.2865.5901.8资产减值损失 Impairment loss(1.4)0.40.8公允价值变动收益 Gains(

37、losses)from changes in fair value of financial assets(11.7)0.00.0投资收益 Investment income870.02,094.8439.2营业外净收入 Net non-operating income11.6(17.8)(15.3)利利润润总总额额 Pre-tax profit5,379.47,592.95,185.0所所得得税税费费用用 Income tax1,764.12,220.41,254.6递延所得税费用 Deferred tax(3.8)(11.1)(87.4)当期所得税费用 Current income tax

38、1,767.92,231.51,342.0净净利利润润 Net income3,615.25,372.53,930.4已发行普通股数（百万股）Common shares outstanding(million)9,412.19,412.19,412.1每每股股盈盈利利（元元/股股）Earnings per share(yuan per share)0.380.570.42ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535

39、455第 8 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company资资产产负负债债表表 Balance Sheet预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions非核心资产 Non-core assets10,187.017,044.811,793.911,793.911,793.911,793.911,793.911,793.911,7

40、93.911,793.911,793.911,793.911,793.9递延所得税资产 Deferred tax assets4.314.2101.714.014.014.014.014.014.014.014.014.014.0递延所得税负债 Deferred tax liabilities2,249.02,256.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1847.1资资产产 Assets货币资金 Cash2,523.22,798.42,470.5应收款项 Accounts receivable1,199.41,923.42,616

41、.1其他流动资产 Other current assets215.3202.8232.8流流动动资资产产合合计计 Total current assets3,937.84,924.65,319.4非核心资产 Non-core assets10,187.017,044.811,793.9固定资产净值 Fixed assets,net33,474.142,305.240,502.1无形资产净值 Intangible assets,net32.725.222.5递延所得税资产 Deferred tax assets4.314.2101.7资资产产总总计计 Total assets47,635.964

42、,314.157,739.4负负债债和和股股东东权权益益 Liabilities and shareholders equity融资缺口 Financing gap0.00.00.0短期借款 Short-term loan5,766.58,053.85,590.8应付款项 Accounts payable916.5484.61,103.5应交税费 Taxes payable882.0902.6743.1其他应付款 Other accounts payable400.1613.11,132.2流流动动负负债债合合计计 Total current liabilities7,965.010,054.

43、28,569.5长期借款 Long-term loan8,500.06,800.06,800.0应付债券 Bonds payable0.03,950.63,955.7递延所得税负债 Deferred tax liabilities2,249.02,256.1847.1负负债债合合计计 Total liabilities18,714.023,060.920,172.3股本及资本公积 Paid-in capital and capital reserves23,000.632,174.427,351.6留存收益 Retained earnings5,921.29,078.810,215.5股股东东

44、权权益益合合计计 Shareholders equity28,921.841,253.237,567.1负负债债和和股股东东权权益益总总计计 Liabilities and shareholders equity47,635.964,314.157,739.4平平衡衡吗吗？Balance checkOKOKOKABCDEFGHIJKLMNO12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243第 9 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company现现金金流流量量表表 C

45、ash Flow Statement预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E本本表表假假设设 Assumptions所需现金/营业收入 Minimum cash balance as%of operating revenues3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%经经营营活活动动现现金金流流 Cash flow from operating act

46、ivities净利润 Net income折旧 Depreciation摊销 Amortization财务费用 Financial expenses（公允价值变动收益）(Gains(losses)from changes in fair value of financial assets)（投资收益）(Investment income)营运资金减少（增加）Dec(inc)in OWC递延所得税资产减少（增加）Dec(inc)in deferred tax assets递延所得税负债增加（减少）Inc(dec)in deferred tax liabilities经经营营活活动动现现金金流流

47、Cash flow from operating activities投投资资活活动动现现金金流流 Cash flow from investing activities公允价值变动收益 Gains(losses)from changes in fair value of financial assets投资收益 Investment income非核心资产减少（增加）Dec(inc)in non-core assets（固定资产购建）(Purchase of fixed assets)（无形资产购建）(Purchase of intangible assets)投投资资活活动动现现金金流流

48、Cash flow from investing activities融融资资活活动动现现金金流流 Cash flow from financing activities（偿还上期融资缺口）(Repayment of beginning financing gap)（财务费用）(Financial expenses)短期借款增加（减少）Inc(dec)in short-term loan长期借款增加（减少）Inc(dec)in long-term loan应付债券增加（减少）Inc(dec)in bonds payable股本及资本公积增加（减少）Inc(dec)in paid-in capi

49、tal and capital reserves（红利）(Dividends)融融资资活活动动现现金金流流 Cash flow from financing activities净现金流 Net cash flow期初现金额 Beginning cash融资缺口前的期末现金额 Ending cash before financing gap现现金金分分配配 Cash distribution所需现金 Minimum cash balance多余现金 Excess cash融资缺口 Financing gap年底现金 Ending cashABCDEFGHIJKLMNO1234567891011

50、12131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748第 10 页，共 13 页诚迅金融培训电电力力公公司司 Power Company比比率率表表 Ratios预测预测预测单位：百万元人民币（特殊说明除外）RMB millions,unless otherwise stated2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E关关键键数数字字 Key numbers营业收入 Operating revenues7,669