法国制造业的竞争力和对外贸易表现外文翻译.doc

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1、外文翻译Competitiveness and External Trade Performance of the French Manufacturing IndustryMaterial Source: Author: PierreRichardThe concept of competitiveness continues to be the subject of much debate in industrial countries, in large part because of its perceived importance in determining activity in

2、 the tradable goods sector and the overall performance of the economy. Krugman(1994), in particular, has argued forcefully that the notion of competitiveness has been used incorrectly in discussions of economic problems that are primarily due to domestic factors.It is well recognized that the concep

3、t of competitiveness encompasses a large variety of factors in addition to changes in nominal exchange rates, relative prices and production costs. Product differentiation, for instance, plays an important role in the competitive strategies of enterprises. Productivity growth, reliability, delivery

4、times, quality, after-sales service, financing arrangements, technological innovation, investment in physical and human capital, and the institutional and structural environment are all factors that need to be taken into account in assessing the competitiveness of a particular country. However, beca

5、use many of these factors are qualitative in nature such as product quality and enterprise management style investigators have often focused on more easily quantifiable indicators, such as those based on export unit values and unit labor costs.This paper assesses developments in the international co

6、mpetitiveness of the French manufacturing industry during the 1980s and early 1990s. It also provides a quantitative evaluation of the role of price and nonprice competitiveness (together with demand factors) on the external performance of the French manufacturing sector. Section II analyzes the evo

7、lution of a broad range of indicators of competitiveness of the manufacturing sector: cost-based indicators (aggregate as well as bilateral indices, relative to Frances main competitors among industrial countries), indicators of import price competitiveness (namely, the differential between domestic

8、 producers market price and that of foreign competitors in the home market), import penetration ratios, relative profitability indices, and nonprice competitiveness indicators. Sections III and IV examine Frances external trade performance in manufacturing during the past fifteen years. Section III

9、examines the evolution of export market shares and export performance in manufacturing, whereas Section IV provides an econometric analysis of external trade performance. A vector auto-regression model linking the manufacturing trade ratio (defined as the ratio of real exports over real imports of m

10、anufactured goods) to domestic and foreign output, relative unit labor costs, an indicator of non-price competitiveness, and short-run disequilibrium effects (captured through an error correction term) is estimated. The analysis uses variance decompositions to assess the role of changes in relative

11、unit labor costs, domestic and foreign output, and non-price competitiveness on trade performance. The final section summarizes the results of the analysis and offers some final remarks.Indicators of competitiveness may be calculated for any particular aspect of interest, depending on the components

12、 used to construct them, the geographical coverage, and the level of aggregation of (actual and potential) competitors, markets, and products. Another source of divergence is given by the mathematical formula and the weighting pattern adopted in the aggregation procedure. 2 This section examines the

13、 evolution of a variety of measures of competitiveness. We begin by reviewing developments in cost-based indicators of competitiveness (on an aggregate as well as bilateral basis), and then turn to indicators of import price competitiveness, import penetration ratios, relative profitability, and non

14、-price competitiveness.Real exchange rate indices based on unit labor costs are among the most commonly used indicators of competitiveness. As is well known, the use of such indices may in some circumstances be problematic (see Marsh and Tokarick 1994). Available data on unit labor costs in manufact

15、uring encompass only the costs of labor services that are incurred directly in manufacturing, and therefore exclude the costs of other important labor inputs that are used in producing manufactured goods. These excluded costs may be in the form of labor from the services sector (such as marketing an

16、d advertisement services) as well as other indirect labor costs embodied in the intermediate inputs needed for producing manufactures. Thus, for a relative unit labor cost index for manufacturing to be a good indicator of the capacity of the manufacturing sector to compete internationally, the share

17、 of direct labor costs in total production costs of manufactured goods must be relatively similar across countries. In addition, relative changes in non-labor costs per unit of output have to be the same as movements in relative unit labor costs. In practice, of course, these conditions are unlikely

18、 to hold. Capital intensity differs across countries, and few measures of labor costs allow for such differences.The purpose of this paper has been to provide an assessment of competitiveness and external trade performance of the French manufacturing industry during the 1980s and early 1990s. The fi

19、rst part of the paper focused on developments in a broad range of competitiveness indicators (cost-based measures, both at the aggregate and bilateral levels, measures of internal price competitiveness, import penetration ratios, profitability indices, and measures of non-price competitiveness). The

20、 analysis in this part suggests that overall the French manufacturing sector has improved its competitiveness position since the early 1980s, and has maintained its relative position since the late 1980s. However, these improvements have not necessarily occurred in sectors with the highest potential

21、 for expansion. Some components of the manufacturing sector may have continued to lose their competitiveness, as suggested by measures based on internal prices and trade penetration ratios.The second and third parts of the paper focused on trade performance in manufacturing. The evolution of export

22、market shares and relative export performance was first examined in the second part. The analysis suggests that Frances market share in manufacturing relative to other major industrial countries did not change in any significant way over the past decade, but that export market performance (defined a

23、s an index of export volumes divided by an index of export markets) has improved since the mid-1980s.An econometric analysis of the short- and long-run determinants of trade performance was then conducted in the third part of the paper. The first stage of the analysis consisted of estimating a co in

24、tegrating relationship between the manufacturing trade ratio, relative unit labor costs, domestic and foreign demand, and a measure of non-price competitiveness (based on relative capital accumulation rates). In the second stage, a vector error correction model (that is, a VAR system in first differ

25、ences of all variables, with an error correction term in level form lagged one period), relating trade performance in manufacturing to the variables described above and an error correction term, was estimated. Variance decompositions indicated that about 40 percent of fluctuations in manufacturing t

26、rade flows are accounted for by changes in price and non-price competitiveness, significantly more than the proportion accounted for by innovations in domestic and foreign output.As emphasized by many commentators in France (at least since the mid-1970s) and elsewhere, a key element in the strategy

27、aimed at improving the external economic performance of the French manufacturing sector is the need to foster a sect-oral reallocation of investment towards strong-demand sectors in order to increase productive capacities and meet the growth in internal and external demand. This argument may be supp

28、orted by the foregoing discussion which has also highlighted the importance of non-price competitiveness for the French economy, particularly in the context of the move towards a common monetary and economic area in which the use of parity adjustments are precluded as instruments of external adjustm

29、ent. Since in the years ahead, international competitiveness of the French manufacturing industry may become less and less related to price and cost developments, the ability to innovate, the diffusion of new technologies, quality standards, delivery time, marketing, before- and after-sales services

30、, the capacity to adapt rapidly to user needs, and increased globalization will be increasingly important for capturing markets.译文法国制造业的竞争力和对外贸易表现资料来源: 作者：皮埃尔理查德竞争力的概念在工业化国家仍是很多争论的话题，很大程度上是因为它在交易产品领域和经济全面表现的活动的重要性。克鲁格曼(1994)，特别是强有力地争论竞争力的概念，已经没有正确使用在讨论的受国内因素影响的经济问题。这能很好的认识到竞争力的概念包含大量各种各样的因素,除了名义汇率变动

31、，相对价格和生产成本。产品差异化，例如，对企业竞争战略起着至关重要的作用。生产率增长、可靠、交货时间、质量、售后服务、融资安排、技术创新、物质和人力资本投资,以及制度和构造环境因素,都是需要考虑到一个特定的国家的竞争力评价中。然而，因为很多这些因素的类型包括定性产品质量和企业管理模式，研究者通常专注于在更容易测量指标的基础上，如出口单位的价值观和单位劳动成本。本文估计法国制造业国际竞争力的发展在20世纪80年代和90年代初。它也提供了法国制造业的外在表现中价格和非价格竞争力（连同需求因素)的量化评估的作用。第二部分分析了制造业竞争力指标一系列明显的演变：新指标(合计以及双边指数,相对于法国在工

32、业化国家的主要竞争对手)、指标的进口价格的竞争力、（即指国内生产者的市场价格和外国竞争对手在国内市场的价格间的差别)，进口穿透率、相对利润指标的竞争力指标,非价格竞争力指标。第三和第四部分检查法国制造业在过去15年中的对外贸易表现。第三部分审查了制造业出口市场的市场占有率和出口实绩的演变，而第四部分则提供了对外贸易表现的计量经济学分析。估计了一个向量auto regression模型连接了制造业贸易比（定义为真正的出口比率超过了真正的人造的产品）向国内和国外输出，相关的单位劳动成本，一个非价格竞争力指标，和短期失衡的效果（捕获通过纠错术语）。这个分析结果运用了方差分解的方法来评估有关单位劳动成

33、本变化、国内和国外输出、以及非价格竞争力在贸易绩效中所扮演的角色。最后一节概述分析的结果，提出了最后的言论。竞争力指标可以计算出任何特定的方面的利益，根据元件用于构建他们的地理范围，和水平（实际和潜在的竞争者、市场）的产品。另一种分歧是数学公式，给出了采用加权模式。本节聚集过程检验过程中的各种措施的竞争力。首先，我们回顾发展中的新竞争力指标（聚合以及双边基础），然后再转到指标的进口价格的竞争力，进口穿透率、相对利润，非价格为核心竞争力。基于实际汇率指标的单位劳动成本最常用的指标的竞争力。众所周知，使用这类指标是有可能在某些情况下（见Tokarick 1994）。现有的数据单位劳动成本仅包含的成

34、本生产劳动服务发生在制造业，并因此直接成本的排除其他重要的劳动投入，是用于生产制造的货物。这些排除费用的形式可能是劳动的服务业（如营销和广告服务）像其他间接的劳动力成本体现在中间的输入为生产制造所需。因此，对相关单位的劳动制造成本指数是一种良好的能力的指标制造业能参与国际竞争,其所分享的直接的劳动力成本的总生产成本制成品在国家必须相似。除此之外,相对非劳动变动成本每单位产出的都是一样的在有关单位劳动成本的动作。在实践中,当然,这些条件是不可能举行。在国家的首都,不同强度的劳动力成本的一些措施,允许这样的差异。本文的目的在于提供法国制造业在20世纪80年代和90年代初竞争力和对外贸易表现的评估。

35、本文的第一部分着重于广泛的竞争力指标(新措施,两者合计,双边合计水平的指标、内部价格的竞争力措施,进口渗透的比率,利润指标,以及非价格竞争力的措施)的发展。从这个部分的分析表明，整个法国制造业从上世纪80年代初以来改善了其竞争力的位置，并且从1980年代后期起一直保持其相对位置。然而，这些改善并不必然地发生在提供最高潜在的扩张的行业上面。有些法国制造业的构成要素可能继续丧失他们的竞争力，建议使用一些基于国内价格和贸易穿透率的措施。在本文的第二和第三部分，本文着重于在制造业方面的贸易表现。出口市场的市场占有率和相关的出口表现的演变在第二部分第一次被调查到。分析表明，在过去的十年里，在生产过程中法

36、国的市场份额相对于其他主要的工业国家来说很大意义上是没有改变的，但是从1980年代的中期以后，出口市场的表现（定义为出口量标志除以出口市场的标志）提高了。贸易表现的长短期决定因素的计量经济学分析在本文的第三部分进行实施和引导。第一阶段的分析包括估计制造业贸易率、有关劳动成本、国内和国外的需求，以及测量非价格竞争力（根据相关的资本累积比率）之间的关系。在第二阶段，一个向量误差修正模型（即在所有变量第一个不同的变量系统中，伴随着误差修正任期内水平滞后的形式）联系贸易表现在制造业的变量和条件，改正错误的估计。差异的分解表明，大约40%的制造业贸易流量的波动归咎于价格和非价格竞争力的变化，大大超过了国

37、内和国外输出的革新所占的比例。许多评论家在强调在法国（至少从1970年代中期开始）和其他任何地方，实施品牌战略的关键因素旨在改善法国制造行业的外部经济性，这需要培养对strong-demand部门的投资的再分配以增加生产能力,满足增长的内部和外部的需求。这个观点是支持上述讨论，突出了在法国经济中非价格竞争力的重要性，尤其是在朝着共同货币和经济领域的环境中，来调整平价十足的外部调整来作为外部部分的仪器排除。因为在我未来的岁月里，法国制造业的国际竞争力可能变得与价格和成本的发展越来越不相关。创新的能力，新技术的扩散，质量标准，交货时间，售前和售后服务，用户需要的迅速适应能力，以及增加的全球化将在获得市场中越来越显得重要。. .此处忽略！