产业结构和经济稳定【外文翻译】.doc

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1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Industrial structure and economic stability 出 处： Applied economic letters 作 者： Sherrill Shaffer 原 文：Motivated by prior results predicting contrasting linkages between industrial structure and economic stability, we present exploratory empirical evidence on this important issue. Consi

2、stent with the turnover hypothesis, we find that employment grew more steadily where business establishments in all sectors were larger, suggesting an offsetting benefit to the first-moment costs of establishment size identified by previous research. Consistent with the job-matching hypothesis, we f

3、ind that employment grew more steadily where more establishments per capita operated in all sectors. Similar but less consistent results were also found regarding the stability of income growth.I. Introduction and BackgroundThe fundamental importance of economic performance has spawned an extensive

4、literature on the empirical determinants of economic growth (see Rajan and Zingales, 1998; Levine et al., 2000 for prominent examples). One recent discovery is that communities or local regions tend to experience more rapid growth of income or employment where businesses are smaller (Shaffer, 2002,

5、2006a, b). A separate strand of research, meanwhile, has demonstrated the importance of studying the volatility of growth rates rather than merely their means (Ramey and Ramey, 1995; Kurz, 2004; Ismihan, 2005; Bekaert et al., 2006). It is relevant in this regard that several studies (Davis and Halti

6、wanger, 1992; Rob, 1995; Davis et al., 1996) have found that jobs at smaller firms tend to be less permanent than at larger firms; while Ilmakunnas et al. (2005) have suggested that such turnover may actually be one reason for faster productivity growth, an unexplored implication is that the volatil

7、ity of employment and income may be higher where businesses are smaller (the turnover hypothesis).Conversely, heterogeneity among decision-makers due to human fallibility can result in greater variability of economic performance in more centralized decision processes (Sah, 1991; Sah and Stiglitz, 19

8、91; Almeida and Ferreira, 2002), possibly suggesting that a local economy may exhibit greater stability where the average firms are smaller or more numerous. A similar outcome is predicted to the extent that (a) centralized decision processes are less successful at managing conflict and (b) distribu

9、tional conflicts impair efficient adjustments to exogenous shocks (Rodrik, 1999; Almeida and Ferreira, 2002).In view of these contrasting considerations, an important empirical question is whether establishment size and other measures of industrial structure may be systematically associated with sec

10、ond moment measures of economic performance.This article accordingly presents preliminary evidence of linkages between selected measures of industrial structure and the volatility of local income and employment growth rates. We use three measures of industrial structure, each distinguished by broad

11、sector. As in Shaffer (2002), we measure average establishment size by number of employees and, alternatively, by dollars of value added, shipments or receipts. We also look at establishments per capita, motivated by two opposing considerations. Finding a new job should be easier in a market with mo

12、re employers in a given sector, leading to more stable levels or growth rates of income and employment (the job-matching hypothesis). But, ceteris paribus, smaller firms will tend to permit the coexistence of larger numbers of firms, in which case the documented employment turnover at smaller firms

13、(discussed above) will tend to offset the stabilizing benefit of more numerous firms. Each of our measures of industrial structure is compiled separately for the manufacturing, wholesale, retail and service sectors.We relate these measures of structure to two second-moment measures of economic perfo

14、rmance, the SD of annual real per capita income growth rates and the SD of the annual growth rate of total establishment employment. The results contribute to two separate strands of the literature, on empirical covariates with growth volatility and on macroeconomic effects of establishment size and

15、 other measures of industrial structure. We find for all sectors that larger establishments and more establishments per capita are associated with more stable employment growth rates, consistent with the turnover and job-matching hypotheses. The same linkages are found for some but not all of the se

16、ctors with regard to the volatility of growth rates in real per capita income.The next section introduces the empirical model and the sample. Section III presents the results, while Section IV concludes.II. The Model and SampleWe embed our key variables in a standard linear empirical growth equation

17、, (1)Where Y is a measure of economic performance as discussed above, is an estimated intercept term, s is a measure of industrial structure as discussed above, x is a vector of control variables discussed below，andare estimated coefficients and is a stochastic error term. As in Bekaert et al. (2006

18、), our SDs of economic growth rates are measured over a 5-year period. As in prior studies of economic growth, the control vector includes the natural logarithm of population, the density of population per square mile of land area, a measure of education and initial median household income.Populatio

19、n is a measure of market size as in Cetorelli and Gambera (2001). It is also similar to the total labor force variable used in Ohuallachain and Satterthwaite (1992) and can be interpreted as measuring urbanization economies. If job-matching occurs more quickly or efficiently in more populous areas,

20、then the estimated coefficient on this variable should be negative (another implication of the job-matching hypothesis introduced above).Population density has been found significantly related to several first-moment measures of economic performance, possibly due to scale effects or to superior matc

21、hing between firms and workers in denser markets (Ciccone and Hall, 1996; Andersson et al., 2004; Carlino et al., 2007; Strumsky et al., 2005). If these benefits influence economic stability, as one might expect, then the estimated coefficient on population density should be negative in our model.Ed

22、ucation is measured as the percentage of population aged 25 and over who have completed high school, and reflects the accumulated level of human capital. It is similar to measures used in previous studies of economic growth such as Rajan and Zingales (1998), Levine et al. (2000) and Cetorelli and Ga

23、mbera (2001), with theoretical linkages to average growth rates explored by Teles (2005).A related measure of education has been used in at least one study of growth volatility (Bekaert et al., 2006). In addition, education was found to be positively associated with sectoral employment growth in US

24、metropolitan areas by O huallachain and Satterthwaite (1992). If education contributes to economic stability as well, its estimated coefficient in our regressions should be negative.Initial median household income can reflect a convergence effect in first-moment measures of economic performance, as

25、noted by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992). The same logic would not apply to second-moment measures of economic performance, rendering the sign and significance of the estimated coefficient on this variable an open empirical question. However, a similar variable (initial per capita GDP) has been used

26、in at least one prior study of growth volatility (Bekaert et al., 2006).Table 1 summarizes the data. Our sample comprises more than 2000 US nonmetropolitan counties, measuring economic performance during 19911995 and structure measures as of 1987. Metropolitan areas are excluded because their border

27、s are generally not coterminous with individual counties, confounding measurement problems for variables drawn from county-level data. Though not reported in the table, the pairwise correlation coefficients between average establishment size and establishments per capita ranged between 0.21 and 0.18

28、, and were just 0.07 in the wholesale sector and 0.07 in the manufacturing sector. These small and highly variable correlations indicate that the two categories of structure variables reflect statistically separate dimensions of industrial structure in our sample.The selection of performance data as

29、 of several years following the structure data helps to reduce the likelihood of reverse causality although, common to all empirical growth studies, causality cannot be definitively established. This lag structure also minimizes the potential for endogeneity bias, as the regressors are predetermined

30、.III. ResultsTable 2 reports the regression estimates for the SD of real per capita income growth rates, while Table 3 reports estimates for the SD of employment growth rates. As industrial structure is measured in three ways for each of four sectors, each table reports 12 regressions. Due to missin

31、g or zero establishment data for a few counties in each sector, the various regressions utilize slightly differing numbers of observations, as reported in the tables. The significance levels are computed from SEs corrected for heteroscedasticity.In Table 2, the various structure measures are statist

32、ically significant in eight of the 12 regressions. Per capita income is found to grow more steadily where manufacturing, retail and wholesale establishments employ more workers, or where wholesale establishments are larger as measured by value of annual shipments. These findings are consistent with

33、the turnover hypothesis discussed above.Conversely, steadier growth is seen where wholesale establishments employ fewer workers or in counties with fewer wholesale establishments per capita or more manufacturing establishments per capita. The contrasting estimates for the wholesale sector may reflec

34、t nonlinearities in the underlying relationships, an issue beyond the scope of this study. These findings indicate that industrial structure is systematically related to the volatility of income growth rates, in ways that are largely consistent but that do vary somewhat across major sectors.The fit

35、of the equations in Table 2 is modest, with adjusted R2 ranging from 0.3 to nearly 0.5. The control variables are mostly significant at the 0.01 level. Initial median household income is never significant, in contrast to the significance of initial per capita GDP found in several cross-country regre

36、ssions on consumption growth volatility by Bekaert et al. (2006). Income is found to grow more steadily in more populous counties. Population density and education are found to contribute to higher volatility of per capita income growth rates, though education loses its significance when controlling

37、 for wholesale establishments per capita. The sign of the education variable contrasts with that found in cross-country specifications by Bekaert et al.(2006).In Table 3, the various structure measures are again statistically significant in eight of the 12 regressions. Employment is seen to grow mor

38、e steadily where there are more establishments per capita in any of the four sectors, consistent with the job-matching hypothesis. In addition, steadier employment growth occurred where wholesale or service establishments employ more workers, or where retail or service establishments have a larger a

39、verage dollar volume of business, consistent with the turnover hypothesis. These latter findings indicate that the benefits of job longevity at larger firms more than offset the volatility theoretically predicted by more centralized decision-making, as discussed above.The fit of these equations is l

40、ess tight than in Table 2, with adjusted R2 around 0.1. Population density is never significant but the other control variables are consistently significant. Employment grows more steadily in more populous counties, where education is higher, or where initial median household income is lower. The po

41、pulation result is consistent with the job-matching hypothesis discussed above, and the education and initial income results match those found in cross-country regressions for consumption growth volatility by Bekaert et al. (2006). As in Table 2, education loses its significance when controlling for

42、 wholesale establishments per capita.IV. ConclusionMotivated by prior results suggesting contrasting and important predictions relating industrial structure to economic stability, we have explored empirical linkages between multiple sector-specific structure measures and the volatility of subsequent

43、 growth rates in real per capita income and employment. Significant associations were found in two-thirds of the specifications, controlling for a standard set of environmental variables. Overall, the turnover hypothesis was found to dominate the contrasting predictions of inefficient centralized de

44、cision-making, as employment and income both tended to grow more steadily where establishments were larger. These findings suggest an offsetting benefit to the first-moment costs of establishment size identified by Shaffer (2002, 2006a, b).The job-matching hypothesis is consistent with steadier grow

45、th where more establishments per capita operate, as found for all sectors in the employment regressions and for the manufacturing sector in the income regressions. Contrasting results were found in the income regressions for wholesale establishments measured by employment size and for wholesale esta

46、blishments per capita. Although our multi-year lag structure reduces the likelihood of reverse causality between industrial structure and growth volatility, causality cannot be definitively established, a shortcoming common to all empirical growth studies. Consequently, policy inferences should be d

47、rawn with caution, pending additional research on the precise mechanisms underlying the observed patterns.译 文：产业结构和经济稳定 谢里尔谢弗 经济及金融系电子邮箱：shafferuwyo.edu 通过预测产业结构和经济稳定之间的联系，在事先对比结果的启发下，我们提出探索这一重要问题的证据。在符合营业额假设的前提下，我们发现更稳定的就业增长在各行业机构均较大，这意味着一个抵消造福于编制第一时刻由以前的研究中发现的成本。这与工作匹配假说相一致，即就业增长在经营各行业的场所更加稳定。与此相类

48、似，但不太一致的结果也发现关于收入增长的稳定性。一、引言和背景经济运行的重要性催生了大量关于影响经济增长的实证因素的文献（见拉詹和辛格勒，1998；莱文等人，突出的例子为2000）。最近的一项研究发现，社区或局部地区往往经历着更快速的收入或就业增长，尤其是在小规模企业（谢弗，2002，2006a，b）。一个单独的研究链，它同时展示了学习增长率波动的重要性，而不仅仅是他们的手段（拉米和拉米，1995；库尔兹，2004；Ismihan，2005；贝卡尔特等，2006）。正是在这方面的几项有关的研究（戴维斯和黑尔蒂旺热，1992；罗布，1995；戴维斯等人，1996）发现，在大公司工作往往比在小企业

49、更持久；而Ilmakunnas等（2005）建议，这类营业额实际上可能是一个更快的生产率增长的原因，一个未开发的含义是就业和收入的波动性可能会导致更高的营业额在规模较小的地方企业中（即营业额假说）。相反，决策者由于人类的不可靠而导致经济的差异性更加集中地表现在决策的过程中（萨，1991；Sah和斯蒂格利茨，1991；阿尔梅达和费雷拉，2002）。这意味着，在一个企业平均规模较小或企业较多的地方，它的经济可能会更加稳定。一个在预计范围内的类似结果：（一）集中决策过程不太善于管理冲突和成功。（二）分配的冲突损害效率调整（罗德瑞克，1999；阿尔梅达和费雷拉，2002）外生冲击。基于这些对比的考虑，一个重要的经验问题是，是否建立规模和产业结构等措施可能是系统地与经济表现的二阶矩措施相关。本文