低碳经济【外文翻译】.doc

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1、本科毕业论文（设计）外 文 翻 译原文：Low carbon economyThis paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for EnergyEconomyEnvironment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with combines a top-down approach for mo

2、deling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology sub Model, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM sub model uses a probabili

3、stic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels re

4、spectively and are compared with a reference scenario, with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political frame work for the UK to move towards deep reductions

5、 rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.Climate change, as a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions, threat

6、ens the stability of the worlds climate, economy and population. The causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The latest scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) has further str

7、engthened the evidence base that it is very likely that anthropogenic GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century. A major recent report on the economics of global climate change (Stern, 2006) suppor

8、ts the position that the benefits of stringent climate mitigation action outweighed the costs and risks of delayed action. Although there is a global consideration of the climate change effects, individual countries have undertaken different steps in climate change mitigation, which is obvious given

9、 the extended negotiations towards the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The EU and individual Member States have undertaken several commitments and directed several policies towards the reduction of their emissions. UK has been selected for this analysis as there is political will within the coun

10、try, as described below from the commitments to tackle climate change. But this commitment can be examined in the context of negotiations at international level, such as the recent commitment of G8 to reduce their emissions by 80% by 2050. Climate change mitigation and energy security are the UKs co

11、re energy policy goals (BERR, 2007). In addition, the decline in domestic reserves and production of UK oil and natural gas, combined with increasing geopolitical instabilities in key gas and oil production and transmission countries have highlighted the need for a secure and resilient UK energy sys

12、tem. Other UK energy policy goals are reductions in vulnerable consumers exposure to high energy prices and a continued emphasis on open and competitive energy markets.The UK set itself a groundbreaking climate change mitigation policy with the publication of a long-term national CO2 reduction targe

13、t of 60% by 2050(DTI, 2003). This target was established in response to the climate challenge set out by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP, 2000). Climate change mitigation targets were reaffirmed in light of competing energy security issues via the 2007 Energy White paper (BERR,

14、 2007). The 60% UK CO2 reductions target is being established in the UK legislative process through the Climate Change Bill as the minimum CO2 reduction target required by 2050 (DEFRA, 2008). This longer term target has been further analyzed by the new regulatory Committee on Climate Change (CCC, 20

15、08), in light of new evidence concerning global stabilization targets (IPCC, 2007). This has led to the proposal for an 80% reduction target for greenhouse gases by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This target has been adopted by the Brown Administration and the Energy and Climate Change Secretary of S

16、tate Ed Miliband, becoming a law through the Climate Change Act (DECC, 2008). Additionally, the UK has been a leading proponent of global long-term CO2 target setting within the G8, as the causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action

17、, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The G8 dialogue resulted in agreement at the 2009 G8 Italian summit for a robust response to climate change including the adoption of the goal to achieve at least 80% reduction of their emissions by 2050, and aiming to reach an agreement of

18、 a 50% reduction in global emissions with other countries.The implementation of three deep CO2 reduction targets (40%, 60% and 80%) for the G8 is examined using the macro-econometric E3MG model. Results are reported for the UK, which is selected as there is a political will to implement such reducti

19、ons. These targets, examined within the UK Energy Research Centers 2050 project (UKERC, 2050), are met through the implementation of a portfolio of policies in contrast to the neoclassical approach, where the targets are imposed and the marginal abatement cost for meeting those targets is estimated.

20、 The paper contributes by adopting a novel hybrid approach integrating simulation models of the economic system and energy technologies and therefore providing an alternative approach to the traditional economic equilibrium modeling. Moreover the paper aims to provide evidence that there exist pathw

21、ays for meeting deep reduction targets and also helping the economy to grow. The need for such evidence has been noted by the IPCC in its assessment of the literature on stringent mitigation targets. Such evidence can inform the international negotiations for a post-Kyoto global agreement.Long-term

22、forecast of the economy and of the energy system expansion is subject to uncertainties on fossil fuel resources, prices, economic and technical characteristics of new technologies, behavioral change, political framework and regulatory environment. But the modeling approach implemented to simulate th

23、e energy system and the interaction with the global economy is crucial for the results. There are many modeling approaches used for examining energy and climate policies at global or at national level either through macro or energy system models. In the extensive literature on energy-economic modeli

24、ng of energy and climate policies, there are two wide spread modeling approaches: bottom-up vs. top- down models. The two model classes differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technological details of the energy system and the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments (Bohringe

25、r and Rutherford, 2007). However, recent evaluations of the literature (IPCC, 2007) have shown the increasing convergence of these model categories as each group of modelers adopts the strengths of the alternate approach. There is a long track record of energy models underpinning major energy policy

26、 initiatives, producing a large and vibrant research community and a broad range of energy modeling approaches (Jebara and Iniyan, 2006). Particularly in recent years, energy models have been directly applied by policy makers for long-term decarburization scenarios (IEA, 2008; Das et al., 2007; Euro

27、pean Commission, 2006), with further academic modeling collaborations directly feeding into the global policy debate on climate change mitigation (Weyant, 2004; Strachan Neil et al., 2009).Before deriving any particular conclusion from the scenarios presented in this paper, it is important to consid

28、er the modeling approach and the way the scenarios have been implemented with E3MG. E3MG being a macro-econometric model of the global economy has the advantage of examining policies at global and at national level, which is more important in cases of international efforts. The 40%, 60% and 80% redu

29、ction targets are not realistic options if implemented only by UK because they would not lead to a significant reduction in climate change and because no single country would easily take a decision moving towards such policies on its own. For these reasons we assume that the emissions reduction targ

30、ets for the UK are implemented as part of international reduction targets. Based on the facts that the Obama USA Administration is committed to finding solution to climate change issue and the major developing countries are reluctant to adopt such policies in the medium term, a G8 reduction target o

31、f 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels seems to be a more realistic framework. The E3MG model adopts a hybrid approach. The aggregate and disaggregate energy demand is estimated using econometric techniques, allowing for fuel switching for the 12 different fuel types and for the 19 fuel

32、users, while the power sector is simulated using a probabilistic approach which considers the economic, technical, environmental characteristics of the power units but considers also the history. The electric system expansion is modeled by using parameters for the different technologies based on his

33、torical data on learning rates, which allows new technologies to gain a share in the market even when their cost is higher than conventional technologies. Moreover the dispatch of the different technologies to meet the electric demand, although using the cost optimization approach comparing the pene

34、tration of the different technologies, takes historical data as its starting point. Both the energy demand system and the energy technology options are implemented so as to model market imperfections which exist in all markets and are not usually considered in the classical cost optimization techniq

35、ues. These market imperfections, resulting either from socio-political factors or from the presence of oligopolies that speculate on the electricity price, cause differentiation in the electricity mix across countries, and lead in many cases to significantly different profiles from those projected f

36、rom models assuming perfect market conditions. The scenarios are implemented in this framework, allowing the cumulative investment at global level for alternative technologies so their faster penetration provides solutions with a more diverse electric mix. It is also important to mention that the em

37、ission reduction scenarios are modeled not by imposing a reduction target and estimating the marginal abatement cost for meeting this target, but by applying different policies at different strengths and different timing, which is consistent with the theoretical background of the spacetime economics

38、 adopted in the E3MG model. The strength and timing of a policy can trigger (or not) the penetration of a new technology. For example, large investments in electric cars in the medium term can lead to their fast penetration, while large investments in hydrogen cars take longer to have effect and so

39、cannot have similar results. The different scenarios have been implemented by applying in different strengths and timing the policies of carbon pricing, direct investment and revenue recycling in the form of investments in the power sector, investments in the transport and other consumption sectors.

40、 The aim was all of them to have a positive effect, by reducing emissions whilst maintaining economic growth. This proves to be the most important conclusion of this paper, that there exist several portfolios of policies that can have large emissions reductions and also help the economy to grow. Thi

41、s finding is in contrast with those from many models predicting that energy investments will have an important negative effect on the economic growth, deriving from the assumptions in the neoclassical approach of full employment (so that there are no extra resources available to produce extra output

42、) and of optimization of the baseline economy by a central planner (so that any shift away from the optimal solution will reduce GDP). But it is consistent with recent political decisions at EU, USA and Japan to invest on green technologies and infrastructure so as to boost their economies out of th

43、e global recession.The set of Carbon Ambition scenarios (40%, 60%and80% CO2 reductions from 1990 levels by 2050) offer insights on decarburization pathways and energyeconomyenvironment trade offs. Decarbonising the global energy system is a timing and well as a political problem with the different p

44、ortfolios of policies becoming preferable depending on the final and intermediate targets. Achieving the stringent 80% target for the UK by 2050 appears feasible, while maintaining economic growth, but implies adoption of a portfolio of policies including strong regulation and high carbon prices.Sou

45、rce: A.S.Dagoumas,T.S.Barker,2010. “Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model”. Energy Policy,April,pp.3067-3077.译文：低碳经济本文通过审查不同的碳途径来实现二氧化碳深度减排的目标，为实现这一目标，英国使用了在全球水平上代表能源经济环境的宏观经济混合模型E3MG。在全球经济视角下，E3MG模型将估计集聚与分散的能源需求这一自上而下的方法，同模拟电力部门这一自下而上的方法（能源技术模型，ETM）相结合，然后

46、为能源需求平衡和整个经济提供反馈。能源技术模型使用了概率统计和历史数据来估计不同技术的水平差距,同时考虑了经济、技术和环境特点。三个途径方案（CFH，CLC，CAM）假设到2050年二氧化碳排放量在1990年的水平上分别下降40%，60%和80%，同时将其与没有减排目标的参考情形相比较。这一减排目标用来模拟英国对于国际缓和成果的贡献，如实现八国集团的减排目标，这是一个使英国走向深入减排而不是孤军奋战的更为现实的政治构架。本文旨在用建模来证明深入减排目标是可以通过不同的碳途径得以实现的，同时通过国内生产总值和投资的途径来评估宏观经济效应。温室气体排放量的上升导致了气候的改变，威胁到了全球气候，经

47、济和人口的稳定。这种气候改变导致了全球性问题，如果国际政府组织要采取措施，那么最终的解决方案必须是全球共同努力的结果。最新的科学研究结果（IPCC，2007）进一步强调了基础证据，人类活动产生的温室气体以现在的或很快的速度排放，有可能会导致更加严峻的全球变暖问题，而且在21世纪会诱发许多全球气候系统的变化。全球气候变化经济会议上的一份主要报告（斯特恩，2006）支持这样一个观点：严格气候缓解行动的利益要大于延迟行动的代价和风险。尽管气候变化带来的影响是要全球性考虑的,但个别国家在减缓气候变化上承担了不同的角色，这也明显延长了对京都议定书批准的谈判时间。欧盟和个别成员国已经采取了一些措施和直接的

48、政策来减少温室气体的排放。根据国家内部的政治意愿，英国也被选入了这一分析，比如以下所述的解决气候变化问题的承诺。但这一承诺只有在国际水平谈判的情况下才能被审查到，比如八国集团最近承诺，到2050年温室气体排放量将减少80%。气候变化的缓解和能源安全是英国的核心能源政策目标（BERR，2007）。此外，英国国内的石油及天然气储备和产量逐渐减少，随着地缘政治不稳定性的增加，在关键气体、石油生产和传输国家，英国强调，需要有一个安全的、有弹性的能源系统。其它英国能源政策的目标是减少敏感消费者对高能源价格的承受风险，继续将重点放在开放的和有竞争力的能源市场上。英国发布公告（DTI，2003），作为长期国

49、家减排目标，到2050年二氧化碳排放量将降到60%，为自己建立了一套开创性的环境变化缓解政策。这一目标成立于皇家环境污染委员会对气候挑战的回应（RCEP，2000）。在2007年能源白皮书关于竞争能源安全问题中，重申了气候变化的缓解目标（BERR，2007）。到2050年最低限额二氧化碳排放的目标正在通过气候变化议案，在英国立法程序中建立英国60%的二氧化碳排放这一目标（DEFRA，2008）。新型气候变化委员会进一步分析了这个长期目标（CCC，2008），并提供了新的关于全球稳定目标的证据（IPCC，2007）。并提出了一个建议，到2050年温室气体排放量相比于1990年水平下降80%。布朗政府和能源及气候变化问题部的部长艾德米利班德已采纳这一目标，通过气候变化法案，使其成为了法律（DECC，2008）。此外，英国一直是八国集团中全球二氧化碳长期目标设定的主要倡导者，由于气候变化的原因和后果是全球性的，因此各国政府可以而且应该采取行动，最终解决方案必须是一个全球集体努力的结果。八国集团通过讨论，一致同意2009年意大利八国峰会稳健应对气候变化目标的协定，其包括至2050年达到温室气体排放量减少80%的目标，并与其他国家达成全球碳排