盈余质量分析的评价指标体系.doc

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1、原文：Analysis of earnings quality evaluation index systemEarnings quality is an important aspect of evaluating an entitys financial health, yet investors, creditors, and other financial statement users often overlook it. 盈余质量是指盈利能力的报告，以反映公司的真实盈利，以及盈利报告的有用性，预测未来盈利。 Earnings quality refers to the abilit

2、y of reported earnings to reflect the companys true earnings, as well as the usefulness of reported earnings to predict future earnings. 盈利质量也指的是稳定，持久性和盈利报告缺乏变异研究。 Earnings quality also refers to the stability, persistence, and lack of variability in reported earnings. 评价的收入往往是困难的，因为公司的各种突出一个数字，收入：收

3、入，营业收入，净利润，和预计收益。The evaluation of earnings is often difficult, because companies highlight a variety of earnings figures: revenues, operating earnings, net income, and pro forma earnings. 此外，公司经常计算这些数字的不同。 In addition, companies often calculate these figures differently. 损益表本身并不是在预测未来收益有用。 The inco

4、me statement alone is not useful in predicting future earnings. 美国证券交易委员会和投资大众的要求更高的收益有关的质量保证。 The SEC and the investing public are demanding greater assurance about the quality of earnings. 分析家估计，需要一个更合适的盈利基础。Analysts need a more suitable basis for earnings estimates. 信用评级机构是根据美国证券交易委员会审议通过增加对它们的评级

5、。 Credit rating agencies are under increased scrutiny of their ratings by the SEC. 这样的舒适程度和信息不提供的审计报告或财务报表。Such comfort level and information is not provided in the audit report or the financial statements. 只有27的金融高管最近首席财务官调查的“感觉非常有信心，公司的质量和完整性有关的公共资料”“这是更好（更糟糕）比你认为，”由D.达菲2004年5月3日 。Only 27% of fina

6、nce executives recently surveyed by CFO “feel very confident about the quality and completeness of information available about public companies” “Its Better (and Worse) Than You Think,” by D. Dupree May 3, 2004. 有许多优质品种的定义收入和模型评估。 There are a variety of definitions and models for assessing earnings

7、quality. 作者们提出了一个统一的，独立的盈利质量的定义该模型允许）的开发收益质量的评估（环境质量局。 The authors have proposed a uniform, independent definition of quality of earnings that allows for the development of an Earnings Quality Assessment (EQA) model. 拟议的评价质量模型计算的程度，公司的收益表报告的真实收入，并在何种程度上可以预测和预测未来的收益。 The proposed EQA model evaluates

8、the degree to which a companys income statement reports its true earnings and the extent to which it can predict and anticipate future earnings. 盈余质量定义 Earnings Quality Defined 一个定义多种盈利质量存在的。 A variety of earnings-quality definitions exist. 蒂茨“质量收入：安， 会计入门教育问题的”17会计教育问题研究，（4），2002指出，“一些人认为收入的质量，以包括基

9、本经济表现的公司，以及会计准则的报告对这一现象的背后，考虑质量，收入仅指会计盈余以及如何传递信息。现象的深层次其他“普拉特定义质量为盈利”的程度，纯收入报告损益表不同于真正的收益“在楼霍奇，”感知的盈利投资者的素质，审计独立性，以及2003年经审计的财务信息的有用性，“ 会计地平线 17（增刊），。Teats “Quality of Earnings: An Introduction to the Issues in Accounting Education,” Issues in Accounting Education, 17 (4), 2002 states that “some con

10、sider quality of earnings to encompass the underlying economic performance of a firm, as well as the accounting standards that report on that underlying phenomenon; others consider quality of earnings to refer only to how well accounting earnings convey information about the underlying phenomenon.”

11、Pratt defines earnings quality as “the extent to which net income reported on the income statement differs from true earnings” in F. Hodge, “Investors Perceptions of Earnings Quality, Auditor Independence, and the Usefulness of Audited Financial Information,” Accounting Horizons 17 (Supplement), 200

12、3. 笔者“财务报告质量的发言：视角，从最近的股市泡沫，” 会计地平线 17（增刊），2003指出，盈利质量是盈利的基础上提出的质量以及当前的盈利报告。 Penman “The Quality of Financial Statements: Perspectives from the Recent Stock Market Bubble,” Accounting Horizons 17 (Supplement), 2003 indicates that quality of earnings is based on the quality of forward earnings as wel

13、l as current reported earnings. 席佩尔和Vincent “盈余质量，” 会计地平线 17（增刊），2003与业主盈余品质定义为“在何种程度上公布的业绩忠实代表希克斯收入”，其中包括净“变化中的经济交易以外的其他资产“。Shipper and Vincent “Earnings Quality,” Accounting Horizons 17 (Supplement), 2003 define earnings quality as “the extent to which reported earnings faithfully represent Hicks

14、Ian income,” which includes “the change in net economic assets other than from transactions with owners.” 使用和分析各种定义的收益质量，研究人员已经开发出了几种模式。 Using various definitions of earnings quality, researchers and analysts have developed several models. 在侧栏总结八项质量模型衡量收入。这些模型可用于非常狭窄，具体用途。尽管定义的标准和模式，用这种重叠，都没有提供一个全面的

15、看法的收益质量。例如，该中心主要目的金融研究和分析（CRFA）的模型，以揭示操作方法的收益。 The Sidebar summarizes eight models for measuring earnings quality. The models are used for very narrow, specific purposes. While the criteria used in these definitions and models overlap, none provide a comprehensive view of earnings quality. For examp

16、le, the primary purpose of the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CRFA)s model is to uncover methods of earnings manipulation. 讨论的八个型号，只有列夫- Thiagarajan与实证研究合作伙伴模式已经实证检验的盈利质量的有用的证据有关。 Of the eight models discussed, only the Lev-Thiagarajan and Empirical Research Partners models have been em

17、pirically tested for evidence of usefulness related to quality of earnings. 列弗与Thiagarajan的调查结果证实，他们的基本（收入）的质量得分相关的盈利持续性和经济增长，而随后的增长Piotroski高于高品质的得分群体。实证研究合作伙伴的模式是部分基于对方法进行测试开发，并其研究结果表明未来盈利能力和模型之间的关系正成绩的基础上。 Lev and Thiagarajans findings confirm that their fundamental (earnings) quality score corre

18、lates to earnings persistence and growth, and that subsequent growth is higher in high qualityscoring groups. Empirical Research Partners model is based in part on methodology developed and tested by Potosi, whose findings indicate a positive relationship between scores based on the model and future

19、 profitability. The following 表1总结了盈余质量的测量标准的八款考虑在每个。abou summarizes the criteria considered in each of the eight models for measuring earnings quality. Center for Financial Research and Analysis: Four criteria to uncover methods used to manipulate earnings. Report includes financial summary, accoun

20、ting policy analysis, discussion of areas of concernEmpirical Research Partners: Three components: net working-capital growth rate, net concurrent assets, deferred taxes; incremental earnings and free cash flow production relative to each new dollar of revenue or book value; and nine financial indic

21、ators, put together for a single gauge of fundamentals. Items viewed favorably: positive return on assets and operating cash flow; increases in return on assets, current ratio, gross margin, asset turnover; operating cash flow that exceeds net income.Items viewed unfavorably: increases in long-term

22、debt-to-assets; presence of equity offerings. Each indicator given a 1 if favorable, an O if not; scores aggregated on an O to 9 scales.Ford Equity Research: Earnings variability is minimum standard error of earnings for past eight years, fitted to an exponential curve. Growth persistence considers

23、earnings growth consistency over 10 years; projected earnings growth rate is applied to normal earnings to derive long-term value. Operating earnings calculated by excluding unusual items, such as restructuring charges and asset write-downs; earnings trend analysis done on this adjusted figure. Repu

24、rchases of an entitys own shares are analyzed to determine if results are favorable.Lev-Thiagarajan: Each fundamental is assigned a value of 1 for positive signal, O for negative signal. Each of 12 factors is equally weighted to develop aggregate fundamental score. Negative signals include: decrease

25、 in gross margins disproportionate to sales; disproportionate (versus industry) decreases in capital expenditures and R&D; increases in S&A expenses disproportionate to sales; and unusual decreases in effective tax rate. Inventory and accounts receivable signals measure percent change in each (indiv

26、idually) minus percent change in sales; inventory increases exceeding cost of sales increases and disproportionate increases in receivables to sales are considered negative. Unusual changes in percent change of provision for doubtful receivables, relative to percent change in gross receivables, are

27、also viewed negatively. Percent change in sales minus percent change in order backlog is considered an indication of future performance.Merrill Lynch (David Hawkins) (see earnings quality: the establishment of a real 360 View, 2002). Higher total capital ratio (pre-tax operating return on total capi

28、tal) returns a higher quality of earnings equivalent. Liquidity ratio above 1.0 (net income figure how close it is to achieve positive cash) that the higher quality of earnings. Re-investment in productive assets ratio above 1.0 (committed to maintaining the fixed asset investment) that a higher qua

29、lity of earnings. The ratio of effective tax rate for all companies meet or exceed the average level (dependence on low-tax report) that the higher quality of earnings. Model also believes that long-term credit rating and Standard & Poors S & P earnings and dividend growth and stability of rank-base

30、d, over the past 10 years. Raymond James & Partners (Michael Krensavage) (also see the earnings quality monitoring, 2003.) 1 (worst) to 10 (best) rating as a benchmark of 10 exclusive distributions; weighted average rating in the combined to determine the earnings quality scores. Low earnings qualit

31、y indicators: increase in receivables; earnings growth due to reduced tax rates, interest capitalization, high frequency / time scale of the project. In a recent major acquisition made during the punishment. Practice of conservative pension fund management and improve the R & D budget faster than re

32、venue in return. Cash flow growth and the related net income and gross margin of profit a positive impact on quality improvement. Standard & Poors core earnings (see also the technical core earnings Bulletin, October 2002). Attempts to give a more accurate performance of the existing business of the

33、 real. Core benefits include: Employee stock option expenses; restructuring charges from ongoing operations; offset the depreciation of business assets or deferred pension costs; purchased research and development costs; merger / acquisition costs; and unrealized gains and losses on hedging. Exclude

34、d items: Goodwill impairment charges, pension income; litigation or insurance settlements, from the sale of assets (loss) and the provisions of the previous years expenses and the reversal. UBS (David Bianca) (also see S & P 500 accounting information quality control, 2003.) Comparison of GAAP opera

35、ting income; the difference between the net one time standard. Employee stock option expenses charged to operating profit. Assuming the market value of return on pension assets to adjust interest rates or the discount rate times. Health care costs adjusted for inflation, if the report is 300 basis p

36、oints more than the S & P 500 companies are expected weighted average. Joint Oil Data Initiative is AUTHOR_AFFILIATION Bell ovary, CPA, is a Marquette University, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Don E. Incoming, CPA, graduate students, professors, and Donald E & Beverly Flynn is Chairman of the holder at Marq

37、uette University. Michael D Akers, CPA, CMA, CFE, CIA, CBM, is a Professor and Head of the Department.在51个标准只有八，/测量中使用的八款（收购;纯收入运营现金流/;员工股票期权，经营的收益;养老保险基金支出，研发支出;股票回购/发行;和纳税率百分比）是常见的两种模式，只有两个（毛利率和一次性项目）模型在三个重叠。 Of the 51 criteria/measurements used in the eight models, only eight (acquisitions; cash

38、flow from operations/net income; employee stock options; operating earnings; pension fund expenses; R&D spending; share buyback/issuance; and tax-rate percentage) are common to two models, and only two (gross margin and one-time items) overlap in three models. 第一步，那么，是建立一个盈利的质量标准的定义。 The first step,

39、 then, is to develop a standard definition of earnings quality. 一个框架的概念财务会计准则委员会的目标是协助投资者的收益作出投资决定，其中包括预测未来。 One of the objectives of Fasts Conceptual Framework is to assist investors in making investment decisions, which includes predicting future earnings. 的概念框架不仅指的可靠性（或真实性）财务报表，而且对信息的相关性和预测能力的财务报

40、The Conceptual Framework refers not only to the reliability (or truthfulness) of financial statements, but also to the relevance and predictive ability of information presented in financial statements. 作者的收入定义的质量吸引了来自普拉特的和Penman的定义。The authors definition of quality of earnings draws from Pratts and

41、Penmans definitions. The authors define earnings quality as the ability of reported earnings to reflect the companys true earnings and to help predict future earnings. 他们认为，收益稳定，持久性，和可变性缺乏是关键。They consider earnings stability, persistence, and lack of variability to be key. 由于比弗指出：“当前的收入是有益的盈利预测未来. 和

42、未来盈利能力指标是对未来股利支付”鲍曼（M中，“基本分析研究会计审查，” 文学杂志会计 15，1996）As Beaver indicates: “current earnings are useful for predicting future earnings and future earnings are an indicator of future dividend-paying ability” (in M. Bauman, “A Review of Fundamental Analysis Research in Accounting,” Journal of Accounting

43、 Literature 15, 1996). 盈余质量评估（局） Earnings Quality Assessment (EQA) 作者提出一个盈余质量评估（局），提供了一个独立的测量报告盈利的公司的质量。 The authors propose an Earnings Quality Assessment (EQA) that provides an independent measure of the quality of a companys reported earnings. 评价质量评估由一个模型，它使用20个标准对影响收益质量（见图表2 ），报表采用的是“滚动式评价”金融在各个

44、时期提出的。 The EQA consists of a model that uses 20 criteria that impact earnings quality (see Exhibit 2 ), applied as a “rolling evaluation” of all periods presented in the financial statements. 评价质量评估是更多的操作模式比八全面介绍，考虑到收入和支出项目，以及一次性项目，会计政策变更，收购和终止。 The EQA is more comprehensive than the eight models pr

45、esented, considering revenue and expense items, as well as one-time items, accounting changes, acquisitions, and discontinued operations. 该模型还评估了稳定，或缺乏，一间公司，这导致了未来盈利潜力更完整的理解。 The model also assesses the stability, or lack thereof, of a company, which leads to a more complete understanding of its fut

46、ure earnings potential. 这些标准都来自八个讨论模型，包括10项准则重叠两个或更多的模型。 The criteria were drawn from the eight models discussed, including the 10 criteria overlapping two or more models. 评价质量评估点值分配一个标准的20 100人，总有一分可能从每1至5。一个1分表示盈余质量的负面影响，而5分表示非常积极的作用盈余质量。The EQA evaluator assigns a point value ranging from 1 to 5

47、for each of the 20 criteria, with a possible total of 100 points. A score of 1 indicates a negative effect on earnings quality, and a score of 5 indicates a very positive effect on earnings quality. 评价质量评估分数，那么，范围从20到100。EQA scores, then, can range from 20 to 100. 类似于债券评级的评分方法，成绩被分配基于以下规模：85-100积分=甲

48、，69-84点= AB公司53-68点= B时，35-51点= BC和20-34积分= c.当评价质量评估的需要使用的专业判断的标准在分配给每个分值，图表2中的指引建议。 Similar to the grading methods for bond ratings, grades are assigned based on the following scale: 85100 points = A, 6984 points = AB, 5368 points = B, 3551 points = BC and 2034 points = C. While the EQA evaluator

49、needs to use professional judgment in assigning scores to each of the criteria, the guidelines in Exhibit 2 are recommended. 评价质量评估中的应用 The Application of EQA 为了说明评价质量评估过程中应用，作者选择了两个大型制药公司，默克和惠氏。作家的每一个独立应用的评价质量对默克公司和惠氏公司的2003年财务报表，然后开会讨论的结果。 To illustrate the process of applying the EQA, the authors chose two large pharmaceutical companies, Merck and with. Each of the authors independently applied the EQA to Mercks and Widths 2003 financial statements, and then met to discuss